Heat stress, storms curb Pakistan’s wheat outlook
By John Reidy
Shifting weather patterns over recent years are adversely impacting Pakistan’s wheat production trajectory while water shortages and input costs temper its rice outlook this season, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
In its July 1 report, the FAS said its updated wheat production forecast of 29 million tonnes for marketing year 2026-27 accounted for late-season heat stress and storms, which trimmed about 680,000 tonnes from its initial projections. While on par with 2025-26 production estimates, current marketing year production would be nearly 2.5 million tonnes below 2024-25.
Despite supply pressures and higher domestic wheat prices, a ban remains in place on wheat imports, the FAS said. The government is monitoring the wheat supply situation and may revoke the ban later in the current marketing year. Exports are prohibited as well.
“Domestic prices of wheat flour increased around 38% between July 2025 and January 2026, due to stock losses and market disruptions caused by monsoon flooding in August 2025,” the FAS said. “The government’s shifts in wheat procurement policy, market manipulation and speculative buying have also been major factors driving the price hike.”
The FAS also adjusted its rice forecast from 9.6 million to 9.1 million tonnes, mainly due to a decrease in planted area. The expected yield of 3.9 kg/ha is in accordance with the average yield over the past three years. The 2025-26 rice production estimate is unchanged at 9.4 million tonnes.
“Water shortages, input constraints and higher energy costs are attributed as major reasons for the decrease in rice area,” the FAS said.
Given the current pace, Pakistan’s rice exports for 2025-26 are projected at 4.7 million tonnes as compared to the 5.1 million tonnes exported during the previous marketing year for one of the world’s leading suppliers of the grain. Exports are forecast to climb back to 4.9 million tonnes in 2026-27.
The unstable situation in the Persian Gulf region, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and stiff competition from India are the key reasons for the decrease in export numbers in 2025-26, the FAS noted.
The government has operationalized six new overland trade corridors to clear thousands of stranded shipping containers from the ports of Karachi, Gwadar and Port Qasim. Looking beyond the Middle East, rice exporters are trying to pivot overland toward Central Asian markets and via expanded maritime routes to African nations.
“As the systems being put into place are still relatively new, cross-border bottlenecks, poor road connectivity, administrative deadlock, technical disputes, and security issues are the major challenges, impacting volumes and optimum functionality level,” the FAS said.
This article has been republished from The World Grain.