Grain market review: Rice

By Chris Lyddon

Rice prices have been easing during recent weeks, with abundant supplies facing weak demand in many markets. The market was racked by uncertainty amid conflict in the Middle East.

“Geopolitics crowd the headlines, and rice is now caught in the crossfire,” the US Rice Producers Association said in its Rice Advocate publication of March 13. “Not only have there been reports of both container and bulk vessels loaded with rice being held up, but the fear of the unknown is also sending shockwaves through the demand complex.

“Global rice stocks continue to bulge, so any additional tightening on the demand side is borderline catastrophic to the already strained supply side of the equation.”

The Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported in its Grain: World Markets and Trade publication on March 10 that “since the February WASDE, global export quotes decreased for all major exporters aside from Uruguay.”

“US quotes dropped $16, to $534 per tonne, on continued weak sales to traditional markets,” the USDA said. “Uruguayan quotes jumped $6, to $459 per tonne, on tight supplies ahead of the harvest of its new crop. Indian quotes decreased $2, to $346 per tonne, on weaker demand from Sub-Saharan Africa, while Vietnamese quotes decreased $7, to $352 per tonne, reflecting the start of the spring harvest offsetting improved demand from the Philippines.”

For Pakistani rice, quotes fell $13, to $353 per tonne, reflecting reduced demand from core Southeast Asian markets, the USDA said, while prices for Thai rice dropped $17, to $383 per tonne, on currency depreciation and reduced demand.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in its March 6 Rice Price Update that rice prices in February were up 0.4% from January but 2.5% below their level a year earlier. As measured by the organization’s indices, prices followed mixed trends across market segments, with Japonica quotations rising 3.7% on the month and Fragrant rice prices increasing by 1.8%, while the Glutinous Index fell by 1.8% and Indica prices remained broadly unchanged.

According to the Rome, Italy-based organization, the rise in Japonica quotations reflected sustained Calrose demand from Far Eastern buyers, coupled with seasonally tight availabilities in Vietnam. In the fragrant segment, it said the increases largely were linked to basmati rice in Pakistan, supported by deals with Near Eastern buyers and domestic demand. In contrast, weak demand continued to weigh on glutinous rice markets.

In Asia, the FAO said Indica quotations were “mostly steady or weaker” during February, with trading activity subdued around the Lunar New Year and market participants waiting for fresh harvests in India, Thailand and Vietnam. Where prices moved higher, the organization said the increases generally were associated with currency movements or tighter supplies, notably in Thailand’s parboiled rice market.

The agency added that harvesting of the 2026-27 crops had begun across Mercosur origins in the Americas. Quotations remained steady in Argentina and Uruguay but softened in Brazil and the United States. In the US market, the FAO said prices declined despite some support from sales to Colombia and Iraq, noting that early grower assessments suggested that large inventories could lead to a sharp reduction in US long-grain plantings for the 2026-27 season.European rice producers and processors have warned that the sector is facing mounting pressure from rising imports, higher production costs and strict regulatory requirements. In a March 12 statement, farmers’ organization Copa-Cogeca, the Federation of European Rice Millers (FERM) and the Ente Nazionale Risi, Italy’s national rice authority said European rice farming “has entered a phase of serious crisis.”

This article has been republished from The World Grain.