Wheat imports remain critical in Middle East

By Chris Lyddon

The Middle East, which spans parts of Western Asia and Egypt in North Africa, has a population just shy of 411 million people. Population growth and limited grain production capacity mean the region needs to import wheat, much of which comes from the nearby Black Sea producers.

Key wheat-producing and importing countries in this region include Egypt, Iran, Turkey, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. 

Egypt

In an annual report on the grains sector dated March 27, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) attaché in Cairo put Egypt’s 2025-26 wheat production at 9.3 million tonnes, with imports for the marketing year estimated at 13 million. 

“Wheat flour exports to other Middle Eastern and African countries continue to increase due to the lack of operating milling capacities in countries of conflict,” the attaché noted. “The expansion of wheat cultivation is challenged by population growth (which requires double the current cultivated area), limited water resources, land fragmentation, urbanization, competition from other winter crops, and inflated production costs.”

The attaché put wheat consumption in 2025-26 at 20.4 million tonnes, up almost 1.5% from the previous year because of an increase in food, seed and industrial consumption, “primarily attributed to population growth.”

“Egypt has a population of more than 107 million and is expected to reach 124 million by 2030, according to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS),” the attaché said. “In addition to the local population, Egypt is also host to an estimated 10 million migrants.” 

According to CAPMAS, inflation levels for baked products and cereals have decreased from 47% in February 2024 to 7.2% in February 2025.

“This has been particularly evident in products such as cakes, biscuits, wafers, croissants and pastries, as well as European and white flat bread (which is non-subsidized),” CAPMAS said. “Although still high, the inflation rate is projected to decline by the end of 2025 due to improved access to foreign currency and keeping the Egyptian pound floating.”

Iran

Iran, which has been at war with Israel in recent months, is set to produce 13 million tonnes of wheat in 2025-26, down from 16 million the previous year, according to the International Grains Council (IGC). In its Grain Market Report of June 26, the IGC put imports at 2.5 million tonnes, up from 1.3 million the year before. UkrAgroConsult reported on June 19 that Iran was the biggest buyer of Russian wheat in May, taking 542,000 tonnes. It was followed by Egypt (341,000 tonnes), Turkey (332,000 tonnes), Bangladesh (159,000 tonnes) and Sudan (138,000 tonnes). 

The Tehran Times said on June 23 that Iran purchased more than 3.8 million tonnes of domestically grown wheat worth 782 trillion rials (about $1.56 billion) through its guaranteed procurement program during the spring season, citing a senior agriculture official who had stressed “that food supply chains remain intact despite recent Israeli aggression.”

Saeed Rad, deputy agriculture minister and head of the Government Trading Corporation of Iran (GTC), said the country’s strategic grain purchasing program is proceeding without disruption, even in light of current “special conditions,” the news organization added.

“Despite the specific challenges the country is facing, including the recent aggression by the Zionist regime, we have experienced no interruptions in the procurement or distribution of essential goods,” Rad said. “From the start of the year, we activated wheat collection centers in southern provinces, and this operation continues nationwide without pause.”

Turkey

Turkey, according to an annual USDA report dated May 2, is set to see a slight fall to 18.5 million tonnes in wheat production in 2025-26, on the basis of “lower yields resulting from very dry weather conditions last fall and winter, especially in some of the major wheat-producing areas in the country.” 

“With 80% of the country’s wheat (and barley) grown on dryland farms, adequate and timely rains are critical to overall production,” the attaché said. Consumption is put at an unchanged 19.4 million tonnes “as demand for food-grade wheat, which accounts for approximately 90% of consumption, is expected to remain steady.”

Wheat consumption has plateaued in the last few years in large part due to Turkey’s demographics and changing consumption patterns, the attaché said. 

“The population growth rate has tapered off over the last five years when compared to 2010-20, when the population was growing at a faster clip because of incoming refugees from war torn Syria,” it said. “At the same time, middle and upper-income consumers have changed their eating habits and are consuming less bread than in the past since there are other available food options.”

Turkey is still considered one of, if not the largest, consumers of bread in the world on a per capita basis.

“Given its importance in the Turkish diet, the government has historically attempted to regulate bread production and prices through different market interventions,” the attaché said. “However, despite these interventions, the price of a plain loaf of bread (200 grams) in Ankara and Istanbul in January of this year climbed to approximately 12.5 TL ($0.33), up year-to-year by about 50%.

“According to bread producers, the hike in bread prices is directly linked to the rising cost of energy, transportation and labor.”

Iraq

The IGC forecasts Iraq’s 2025-26 wheat crop at 5 million tonnes, down from 6.3 million the previous year. Its imports are set to rise to 2.1 million tonnes, from 1.5 million. The Iraqi News noted on June 4 that Iraq Minister of Trade Atheer Al-Ghurairy said the country had achieved self-sufficiency in wheat. 

“The surplus in Iraq’s wheat crop, which reached 1.5 million tonnes, is a result of better rainfall than anticipated and, more importantly, government funding,” The Iraqi News said. “To stimulate the production of the essential grain amid often dry circumstances, the government gives farmers more than double the price on the global market.”

The director of Iraq’s General Company for Grain Trade, Haider Nouri, revealed earlier that Iraq’s strategic reserves of wheat surpassed 5.5 million tonnes, it added. 

“Nouri explained that this large stock of wheat is sufficient for one year to meet local demand, underscoring that flour prices will not rise with any global crisis,” The Iraqi News said. “Iraq was self-sufficient in wheat for three years before the conflict in Ukraine. However, water shortages and desertification reduced local wheat output, requiring the Iraqi government to import wheat to offset the gap.”

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said in a GIEWS (Global Information and Early Warning System) note on Iraq that “low precipitation amounts between October 2024 and February 2025 delayed planting activities until the end of November 2024 and reduced the extent of the cereal planted area, hampering yield prospects despite improved rainfall in March.”

“Despite governmental support through subsidized seeds, inputs, and access to mechanization services, offsetting the negative impacts of the unfavorable start of the season remains challenging,” it added.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia, according to an annual attaché report of March 20, is forecast to import 3.2 million tonnes of wheat in 2025-26, 10% down from the previous year “due to projected high local production.”   

“GFSA is the monopsony purchaser of domestically grown and imported wheat in Saudi Arabia,” the attaché explained, referring to the country’s General Food Security Authority. “The authority estimated domestic wheat production at 1.5 million tonnes for MY 2025-26 (July-June), an increase of 25% from last year’s production of 1.2 million.”

They put wheat consumption in 2025-26 at 4.6 million tonnes, up 2% from the previous year. 

“Demand for wheat is projected to remain strong over the next few years due to an increased demand from the foodservice sector,” the attaché noted. “Hundreds of labor camps, the main driving force in the foodservice sector, are being established throughout Saudi Arabia to build several eye-catching multibillion-dollar mega projects by 2030.

“Saudi Arabia is also constructing various luxurious resorts and other attractions on the Red Sea to attract more than 150 million visitors annually by 2030. All these projects, coupled with more religious and tourist visitors, have already increased the demand for bread and other food ingredients used by the catering and foodservice sector.

“Wheat is mainly consumed as a flat (pita) bread or a local hamburger bun known as a ‘Samoli.’ Western-style bread, such as French baguettes and pizza, is also popular.” 

The attaché put per capita annual wheat consumption in Saudi Arabia at “approximately 133.14 kg (or 106.5 kg of wheat flour),” in 2024-25. Most of it is white flour, but they noted a growing demand for whole wheat flour in recent years due to its perceived health benefits, with the country’s four flour mills increasing production of whole wheat flour in response.The GFSA “focuses on creating an abundant food supply in Saudi Arabia, builds strategic reserves for targeted food and feed products (e.g., wheat, barley, cooking oil, sugar), and maintains an adequate food level for emergencies,” the attaché said.

This article has been republished from The World Grain.