The 2023/24 global rice outlook presents a compelling story of surging prices as the world anticipates record-breaking consumption, driven by India’s expanding food assistance programs. With supplies on the rise, higher demand and increased trade, global stocks remain at a six-year low. In the U.S., reduced production has led to slightly lower supplies and elevated prices, while domestic use and exports hold steady, offering an intriguing mix of challenges and opportunities for the rice market.
US Rice Outlook for 2023/24
Supplies: Slightly decreased due to lowered production reported in the NASS November Crop Production report. The reduced production is attributed to lower yields, leading to a 219.7 million cwt output for all rice, marking an 845,000 cwt drop. The average all rice yield decreased by 30 pounds per acre to 7,707 pounds.
Domestic Use and Exports: Both domestic use and exports remain unchanged.
Ending Stocks: Despite the reduction in all rice ending stocks by 845,000 cwt to 40.9 million cwt, there is still a 35% increase from the previous year.
Price: The season-average farm price for all rice is raised by $0.50 per cwt to $17.30. This increase is reflected in long-grain and other (southern) medium- and short-grain forecasts.
Global Rice Outlook for 2023/24
Supplies: Globally increased to 692.6 million tons, mainly due to higher beginning stocks for India. India’s stocks were raised based on a reduction in 2022/23 consumption as per the latest government stocks report. The country’s beginning stocks also rose due to decreased 2022/23 exports after implementing an export ban for non-parboiled white milled rice.
Consumption: The global rice consumption is projected to increase to a record 525.2 million tons, primarily driven by higher expected consumption in India as the government extends its food assistance programs.
Trade: Expected to be at 52.7 million tons, with an increase of 0.4 million mainly due to higher exports from Brazil.
Ending Stocks: Estimated to be 167.4 million tons, which remains virtually unchanged from the previous month, holding at a 6-year low.
The 2023/24 rice outlook is marked by a dynamic interplay of factors, with increased global supplies but a record-high consumption driven by India’s government programs. As prices surge, the market reflects a delicate balance between supply and demand, with U.S. production constraints and soaring prices offering both challenges and opportunities for producers and consumers worldwide. The global market remains watchful as it navigates these complex dynamics, with an eye on how policy decisions and production trends will influence future outcomes.
This article has been republished from The Investing. com